A fair question given my wording. The project did *everything* right and broke the usual rules of how Kickstarts evolve: biggest support in the first two days, long decreasing tail with possibly an uptick at the end. Final total predictable, being approximately 16.5 – 33% of taking the first two days and multiplying by the campaign length.

You, on the other hand, had a campaign start that wasn’t significantly greater than the long tail and a massive run-up at the end. Your total was greater than what would have been predicted at the beginning. It’s a case if not following the usual, established patterns, to enormous success. But in terms of expectations, it was about 3σ from the mean.

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